Nov
18

Facebook (FB) Shares Break Out of Downtrend

FB

Facebook (FB) Stock Forming Base at $49, Trading Above Descending Channel

Despite reporting earnings that easily exceeded expectations, some comments from the conference call spooked investors and sent shares of Facebook (FB) into a downtrend for the past month. Last week FB broke through the upside of their descending channel and appear to be forming a floor at $49. I viewed the market’s reaction to management’s comments during the CC as irrational and overstated and believe their long-term growth prospects are still well-intact. If shares have truly broke out of their downtrend and are forming a base at $49, this level should prove to be an attractive long-term entry point. We will be monitoring their price action closely today, looking for FB to remain above $49 and confirm their break out.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
14

How long will Yahoo (YHOO) Shares Keep Running

YHOO Long Term

Yahoo (YHOO) Could Find Resistance at $40

Yahoo (YHOO) shares have had quite a run as of late, up 10% in their last 5 trading days. After using a short-term chart of YHOO to anticipate their action this week, with shares now at a 7 year high it is necessary to take a look their long-term chart to determine where shares may next run into resistance. Looking at all available price action data available on Yahoo’s stock, we can see that historically shares have been met with a good deal of resistance near $40, only eclipsing that figure for a meaningful amount of time during the internet bubble of 1999. Coincidentally, when analyzing Yahoo’s fundamentals last month, the high-end of our determined fair valuation range for YHOO was $40. From both a technical and fundamental perspective I believe shares will appreciate by another 12% in the short-term barring a major downturn in the US equity markets.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
14

Foot Locker (FL) Stock Near 23 Year High

FL

Foot Locker (FL) Share’s Rally Should Extend

Less than 3 weeks ago I recommended buying shares of Foot Locker (FL) as a means of capitalizing on the growth of the athletic apparel sector at a much cheaper valuation than Nike (NKE), Adidas (ADDYY), or Under Armour (UA) can be purchased at. Shares are up 9% since then and are now approaching their highest level since 1990. In August Foot Locker traded as high as $37.85, and we will be watching closely as the stock looks to take out that level in the next few trading sessions. In the past 3 months FL has tested and bounced off of their long-term uptrend line multiple times, a very bullish sign for investors. Very similar to what we’ve seen with Yahoo (YHOO) this week, Foot Locker has a great deal of upside above their 52 week high from a technical perspective with virtually no overhead resistance. More importantly they also possess the fundamentals to warrant significant appreciation. The athletic apparel sector as a whole is thriving right now with NKE, ADDYY, UA, Dicks (DKS), and Finish Line (FINL) all at or near all-time highs. Foot Locker the strongest balance sheet of the group, trades at the lowest multiples, and has a buyback program in place that will account for nearly 10% of outstanding shares. FL remains a strong buy and one of our top picks.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
13

Yahoo (YHOO) Shares Close at New 52 Week High

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Yahoo (YHOO) Stock at 52 Week High, Highest Price Since January 2006

Yahoo (YHOO) is making a lot of people look/ feel pretty smart this week as shares continued their surge today. YHOO opened down this morning but remained in a steady uptrend throughout the day, filling the gap on their chart created by yesterday’s price action and setting a new 52 week high in the process. Not just a 52 week high, today was Yahoo’s highest closing price since January 2006. As mentioned yesterday, there is no overhead resistance on YHOO’s chart now and shares have plenty of room to continue their run. In my analysis of Yahoo last month I suggested they were undervalued and that their fair value was in the range of $38- $40 per share. I will review and update my recommendation of YHOO next week if shares continue to close in on my target price.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
13

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Expansion Continues With The Parisian Macau

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Seeking $1.5 billion loan to support Macau growth

Despite opening the massive Sands Cotai Central resort  in Macau just last year, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is already looking ahead to their next mega-casino/resort, The Parisian Macau. Scheduled to open in 2015, The Parisian Macau will add over 3,000 hotel rooms and suites to the Cotai Strip and will feature an Eiffel Tower replica and shopping mall in addition to a massive casino floor. Las Vegas Sands has pegged The Parisian’s development costs at $2.7 billion, and it has been reported that they have been seeking a $1.5 billion loan to help fund the project. Also requiring capital is the St. Regis phase of the Sands Cotai Central Resort, expected to cost $450 million. Management of LVS has been prudent in managing their balance sheet, returning capital to shareholders while taking advantage of the availability of cheap capital and borrowing when needed to fund growth. The Parisian will add to Las Vegas Sands’ already industry leading presence in Macau, joining The Venetian Macao, Sands Macao, Sands Cotai Central, and The Plaza Macao.

In a note to clients Monday, Wells Fargo analyst Cameron McKnight estimated gambling revenue growth in Macau of  19%- 21% this month based on data collected the first week and a half. A strong November would set Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL), and MGM Resorts (MGM) up for another very good quarter on the heels of an October that generated historic amounts of revenue, up 32% year-over-year. I am very bullish on Macau and expect the amazing growth rates out of the region to continue for the foreseeable future as infrastructure and transportation to Macau improves and the Chinese middle class continues to emerge. I currently view both LVS and MPEL as strong buys and the best positioned of the casino operators in Asia.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
12

Yahoo (YHOO) Stock Continues Strength, Over $34

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Yahoo (YHOO) Shares Remain Strong

In what is seemingly becoming a daily column, we take a look at Yahoo’s (YHOO) price action once again. After breaking out of a wedge pattern yesterday, YHOO stock gapped up once again today taking out the key $34 level as we had expected. Despite a down day for the markets, Yahoo displayed strength all day and remained above $34. I believe this price will now provide support to the downside, and looking at YHOO’s chart now, there is little overhead resistance to be found. This stock is firing on all cylinders at the moment from a technical analysis perspective.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
11

Yahoo (YHOO) Breaks Out, Little Resistance Above $34

YHOO Breaks Out of Wedge

Yahoo (YHOO) Gaps Up, Out of Falling Wedge

Yesterday we highlighted a chart of Yahoo (YHOO), showing a close on Friday just above the falling wedge pattern they have been trading within the past month. I was looking for a confirmation of that break out today and Yahoo followed through, gapping up on the open and finishing the day well above Friday’s close. Looking at the chart now, YHOO faces slight resistance at $34 and has a good deal of upside from a technical perspective once taking out that barrier. Another strong day tomorrow will take shares of YHOO above $34 and on their way to our $38 target price.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
11

Madison Square Garden (MSG) Optimal Entry Level

MSG

When to Buy Madison Square Garden (MSG)?

Madison Square Garden (MSG) is one of our top picks at the moment based on our belief that the sum of their parts is worth far more than the market is currently valuing the company. Taking a glance at their chart, they appear to be near an optimal entry level for the long term. Over the past 9 months, MSG shares have failed to trade meaningfully below $55, only closing beneath that number by a few cents on two occasions. Despite a very positive earnings report, the completion of the Madison Square Garden arena renovation project, and the opening of the NBA & NHL seasons in the past few weeks, MSG is trading at a 3% discount from our first recommendation to buy them. Currently at $55.75, Madison Square Garden is very near the ideal time to enter a position from a technical perspective.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
10

Is Yahoo (YHOO) About to Break Out of Their Channel?

YHOO 11/10/2013

Yahoo (YHOO) Looks to Break Out This Week

Since highlighting Yahoo (YHOO) last month, shares are flat, after trading between $32- $34 on relatively low volume the past few weeks. When drawing trend lines on their chart, we can see that Yahoo closed above the channel on Friday. A follow through on that action tomorrow could signal a potential break out and good entry point for YHOO. Should shares fail to remain above $33 tomorrow, we could see $32 again this week, and would look to enter a position there. I believe YHOO is currently undervalued by nearly 20% based on the value of their Alibaba stake, Yahoo Japan stake, and core business operations.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Nov
09

Madison Square Garden (MSG) As Strong a Buy as Ever

Madison Square Garden (MSG) Hidden Asset Value Story Remains, Renovations Complete

In October I published an analysis on Madison Square Garden (MSG) and highlighted the company as a strong buy and one of our top picks. Despite another strong month for the markets, shares of MSG are down 3% since I recommended them, despite releasing some positive news over the past few weeks. First MSG announced that renovations at Madison Square Garden had been completed just in time for the start of the New York Knicks and Rangers seasons. The project had been ongoing for more than 3 years and cost $1 billion. For the first time since spinning-off from Cablevision, Madison Square Garden will have normalized cash flows now that their renovations are finished, opening the door for a potential dividend or share repurchase. Then last week, MSG reported Q1 2014 results that beat analyst expectations. Madison Square Garden earned $0.31 per share, easily topping the $0.22 consensus estimate. They also beat on revenues by $3 million, generating sales of $215 million for the quarter.

While some investors in MSG may have been frustrated by the muted response the aforementioned developments received, this is an asset play, patience is a necessity. We do not anticipate any news out of Madison Square Garden that will offer much of a surprise. Their business is relatively consistent and easy to model, they are not going to shock anyone with growth. Our investment thesis is based on the markets not understanding the true value of MSG’s assets. These assets have been undervalued for years now, and although shares have been gradually appreciating towards fair value they still have a long way to go. In our analysis published last month we concluded a fair enterprise value for Madison Square Garden existed between $7.9- $8.5 billion. We came to this price by valuing MSG Media at $4.4- $5 billion, the Madison Square Garden Arena and its air rights at $2 billion, $1.15 billion for the Knicks and Rangers, and $350 million for their other venues. Madison Square Garden’s current EV is only $4.1 billion. The slight decline in share price since our initial recommendation merely provides a better valuation, the underlying story has not changed at all, MSG is still a strong buy and one of our top picks.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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